Economic development in Africa – Made in Africa Rules of origin for enhanced intra-African trade
2019年6月26日，日內瓦 – 貿發會議的一份新報告指出，原產地規則 – 確定產品國籍所採用的標准 – 可能會決定5月生效的非洲大陸自由貿易區的成敗。
貿發會議秘書長穆希薩·基圖伊 (Ling Kituyi) 稱：「非洲大陸自由貿易區是非洲區域一體化歷史上一項具有里程碑意義的成就，預計將產生重大收益。不過，非洲大陸自由貿易區下的優惠貿易自由化能否改變非洲的工業化進程，將取決於原產地規則」。
貿發會議 2015-2017 年數據顯示，目前非洲內部貿易僅為15%，相比之下，美國約為 47%，亞洲約為61%，歐洲約為 67%，但非洲大陸自由貿易區的出現可能會徹底改變這一狀況。
貿發會議估計，如果協定得到全面實施，一旦取消所有關稅，大多數非洲國家的國內生產總值將增長 1%至 3%。有望推動非洲內部貿易。
2015 – 2017年10個主要的非洲內部出口國是Eswatini（70.6％），納米比亞（52.9％），津巴布韋（51.6％），烏干達（51.4％），多哥（51.1％），塞內加爾（45.6％），吉布提（ 41.9％），萊索托（39.9％），肯尼亞（39.3％）和馬拉維（38.3％）。
The Economic Development in Africa Report 2019 notes that rules of origin – the criteria needed to determine the nationality of a product – could make or break the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) that entered into force in May. According to the report, the rules could be a game changer for the continent if they are simple, flexible, transparent, business friendly and predictable.
State of regional trade in Africa
Total trade from Africa to the rest of the world averaged US$760 billion in current prices in the period 2015–2017, compared with $481 billion from Oceania, $4,109 billion from Europe, $5,140 billion from America and $6,801 billion from Asia.
The share of exports from Africa to the rest of the world ranged from 80% to 90% in 2000 –2017. The only other region with a higher export dependence on the rest of the world is Oceania.
Intra-African exports were 16.6% of total exports in 2017, compared with 68.1% in Europe, 59.4% in Asia, 55.0% in America and 7.0% in Oceania.
Intra-African trade, defined as the average of intra-African exports and imports, was around 2% during the period 2015–2017, while comparative figures for America, Asia, Europe and Oceania were, respectively, 47%, 61%, 67% and 7%.
Since 2008, Africa, along with Asia, is the only region with a rising trend in intraregional trade.
In 2016, intra-regional economic community trade was highest in SADC ($34.7 billion), followed by CEN–SAD ($18.7 billion), ECOWAS ($11.4 billion), COMESA ($10.7 billion), AMU ($4.2 billion), EAC ($3.1 billion), IGAD ($2.5 billion) and ECCAS ($0.8 billion).
With regard to the share of intra-regional economic community trade in total trade in Africa, in 2016, there were deeper levels of integration in SADC (84.9 per cent), followed by COMESA (59.5 per cent), CEN–SAD (58.4 per cent), ECOWAS (56.7 per cent), AMU (51.8 per cent), IGAD (49.0 per cent), EAC (48.3 per cent) and ECCAS (17.7 per cent).
The 10 leading intra-African exporters in 2015–2017 were Eswatini (70.6%), Namibia (52.9%), Zimbabwe (51.6%), Uganda (51.4%), Togo (51.1%), Senegal (45.6%), Djibouti (41.9%), Lesotho (39.9%), Kenya (39.3%) and Malawi (38.3%).
The 10 countries with the lowest share of intra-African exports were Chad (0.2%), Guinea (1.6%), Eritrea (2.3%), Equatorial Guinea (3.5%), Cabo Verde (3.6%), Angola (3.9%), Libya (4.5%), Guinea Bissau (4.7%), Liberia (5.1%) and Algeria (5.5%).
State of trade facilitation
On average, applied tariff rates to intra-regional economic community members amount to 7.4% in CEN–SAD, 5.6% in ECOWAS, 3.8% in SADC, 2.6% in AMU, 1.89% in COMESA, 1.86% in ECCAS, 1.80% in IGAD and zero in EAC.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest cost to export compared with all other regions and the highest cost to import with the exceptions of Latin America and the Caribbean based on border compliance, and South Asia, based on documentary compliance.
In 23 developing countries (13 in Africa) and LDCs during 2010–2013, 35% of the most difficult non-tariff measures applied by partner countries to manufacturing exports concern rules of origin and related documentation.
The most frequent complaints registered on the non-tariff barriers reporting, monitoring and eliminating mechanism of the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement relate to rules of origin (11% of filed complaints).
Rules of origin
Prior to the 2011 Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) reforms, the more flexible rules of origin under the African Growth and Opportunity Act of the United States (requiring single transformation) have been found to stimulate exports from LDCs in Africa rather than the more restrictive rules of origin under the Everything but Arms initiative of the European Union.
Based on a gravity model for 155 countries and about 100 preferential trade agreements, Estevadeordal and Suominen (2005) find: (i) that preferential trade agreements with restrictive rules of origin tend to depress aggregate trade flows; (ii) regime-wide rules of origin that allow for flexibility in the application of product-specific rules of origin facilitate trade; (iii) restrictive rules of origin in final goods encourage trade in intermediate goods; and (iv) the negative effects of stringent product-specific rules of origin dissipate over time.
Intra-African trade values (in terms of both imports and exports) of the 20 products with the highest preference margins were relatively low, with the exception of tobacco products, beer and spirits, knit T-shirts, wine and women’s suits and pants, reflecting in part the difficulty of sourcing these products from within Africa.
François et al. (2006) find that exporters start to request preferences when preferential margins are around 0% and 4.5%. For the 20 products in Africa with the highest export values, preferential margins exceed 4.5% for 11 products, including five of the six top export products, namely, petroleum gases; gold; petroleum oils, refined; diamonds; and cars.
The share of imports of goods from Africa that is eligible and makes use of external preferential treatment varies greatly between trading partners, and is highest in Chile, the Republic of Korea and the United States.
With regard to the use of external preferential schemes by countries in Africa, some countries are largely unable to make use of preferential treatment for their exports to external partners, namely, Benin (underutilization rate of 95.4%), Burkina Faso (100%), the Central African Republic (100%), Djibouti (96.5%), Equatorial Guinea (93.2%), Guinea (100%), Guinea-Bissau (100%), Liberia (100%), Libya (100%), Mali (99.6%), Seychelles (100%), Sierra Leone (100%), Somalia (98.9%), Togo (100%) and the United Republic of Tanzania (94%).
Underutilization rates are low for: Botswana (1.1%), Cabo Verde (3.6%), Chad (0.1%), Côte d’Ivoire (2%), the Comoros (4.3%), Ghana (2.3%), Kenya (4.5%), Lesotho (1.7%), Madagascar (4.9%) and Mauritania (3.1%).
In 2016, unused preferences were highest for mineral products, amounting to $2.3 billion, followed by precious materials ($1.4 billion) and vegetable products ($0.6 billion). In terms of shares of underutilization in 2016, precision instruments had the highest, followed by chemicals, wood and hides and skins.
Kenya is one of the most successful examples of the inclusion of smallholder farmers in the tea value chain, owing to deliberate efforts to enhance their stake in the governance of the processing and marketing stages (FAO, 2014). They account for over 70% of national tea production, with half a million people deriving their livelihood from this cultivation.
Africa accounted for over 20% of global tea exports and 12% of imports in 2015–2017. In this respect, Kenya is by far the leading African country as the world’s third-largest tea exporter, with a market share of approximately 17 per cent during the same period. Between 2015 and 2017, about 43% of tea imports to Africa was sourced from China, another 40% from within Africa; the rest originated primarily from India and Sri Lanka.
Overall, the intra-African market accounts for roughly 25% of tea exports from Africa.
Although exports of cocoa and related products from Africa to the rest of the world dwarf the intra-African market – on average $7.8 billion per year, compared with $170 million in the 2015–2017 period – the latter’s composition is primarily higher value added products, with chocolate accounting for nearly 60% of the total.
There is a possible dichotomy concerning Africa’s participation in the cocoa value chain. On the one hand, most cocoa-producing countries are integrated through the supply of raw materials and semi-processed intermediates (forward participation) embodying limited value added and are directed mainly to developed markets. On the other hand, a few manufacturing hubs – for example, Egypt and South Africa – supply final chocolate products for their domestic and subregional markets, but predominantly source their intermediate inputs (backward participation) from outside the continent.
The cocoa–chocolate sector remains heavily protected in Africa, with median most-favoured nation tariffs ranging from roughly 5% to 25%, depending on the HS heading. There is clear evidence of tariff peaks – tariff rates of 15% or more – and tariff escalation.
70% of cotton exports from Africa are primary intermediates embodying limited value addition, such as cotton fibres (whether carded or not); only 12% take the form of yarn, and 18% of cotton fabrics. Conversely some 12% of Africa’s cotton imports is accounted for by primary intermediates; 16%, by yarn; and as much as 72%, by cotton fabrics.
Intra-African trade accounts for only 15% of cotton exports and 12% of imports and for 10% of the continent’s apparel exports, and 17% of its imports.
In 2001–2017, LDCs benefited from duty-free, quota-free market access to the European Union under the Everything but Arms initiative. However, since the 2011 reform of the Generalized System of Preferences, the new rules of origin approach applicable to textiles and apparel originating from LDCs switched from double to single transformation. This reform was accompanied by a significant boost to the market share of LDCs in the European Union, as well as by improvements in the rate of preference utilization.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that even in countries with reasonably vibrant apparel industries such as Mauritius, SMEs often find it more difficult to maintain competitiveness than larger firms, when having to comply with double transformation requirements.
If a double-transformation approach is considered, full cumulation might be crucial in ensuring that preferences applying to the Continental Free Trade Area remain commercially valuable and do not excessively hamper the strategies of African firms.
Reliance on intra-African imports is comparatively higher for beer (44%) and soft drinks (39%), than for spirits (14%). Leading importers in the region are Namibia, Mozambique, Uganda, Lesotho, the United Republic of Tanzania, Ghana, Rwanda, Mauritius, Mali, Benin and Tunisia.
Beverage exports in the region are subject to substantial tariffs, considering that most countries within Africa trade with one another at most-favoured nation rates. In 2014–2016, the median rates for countries in sub-Saharan Africa ranged from 20% to 30%, depending on the tariff heading.
The automotive industry in Africa remains extremely outward-oriented, especially in relation to passenger cars, where the regional market accounted for less than 10% of exports and 2% of imports.